will europe and east asia be devasted if...

[blingbling]

...say, the big-3 and the wall-street bail-out did not or will not happen?

i mean as far as i know, the economic history of the world has been pretty MACROscopically defined as such

anything before the printing press: craftwork, barter, buy/sell stuff, work, simple stuff. europe was not powerful

colonialism: a bunch of european powers gain money through new world colonies (a crap load of gold here, as well as fur and sugar), then there was a struggle for africa (not nearly as much resources), blah. but then europe became powerful

industrial revolution: mechanization sees european powers not only import but now have things to export too. then ford made factories and mass production. america gains independance. but europe is still powerful.

world war 2: right after a recession too. the upper limits of the industrial revolution is reached, so all those kids born when the economy was cheery are now facing a lower supply but high demand. but hitler "saves" everyone, back to a second industrial revolution! everyone flocked to the factories. people have to spend. europe is in shambles now though. american, not having any infrastructural damage, is now the power.

the future: globilization... dot dot... dot...?

so what i'm saying is that whichever "economic power" that was formed pretty much had 1 single incident that established them as the premier player. once at the top, you are pretty much garunteed a period of time whereby re-investing and safe tactics like that ensures you stay there. and then you fall from grace either

a) slowly as other nations become more industrious than you
b) an event like a war or plague or something of that sort

so again, original question, had the struggling firms in wall st died and say if the big 3 run out of money, how would the east asian (SK, JP, PRC) and european nations be affected? could it be as bad as the 30s (following ww1, then the use of large scale factories by ford et al., and the booming twenties in the states ALL LEADING TO SATURATION)? or perhaps the 70s? (following ww2, then the booming 50s in the states due to the remechanization of the usa industry). how bad could it possibly get?

[Ferrer]

I'd say no.

There are economic cycles, ups and downs and changes in leadership.

But the world has been on a constant economic growth since about 1870. I don't think that's going to change for now.

[blingbling]

oh really eh? what happened in 1870? :s

[wwgkd]

I say yes. Like it or not what effects the US effects the rest of the world, too. When we have a recession, so does the rest of the world. The reverse is true too, though. If asia crashed, it would greatly harm us.

[Matra et Alpine]

The collapse of any of the large powerful economies will bring the others to hard times.
Globalisation means we trade and trade LOTS of goods.
So, if one major group - Europe or CHina, or America - goes "bust" then because it doesnt' import anything and unable to manufacture and export anything then the other partners feel the pinch. THey have goods and no one to export them too !
It's not about power, but now about inter-dependancies.
eg, the US coudl not now have a viable computer manufacturing business as the capital investment to restart major chip manufacturing and board assembly is too high. So we ALL depend on the far east manufacturers. Many more examples in all fields.

[Ferrer]

oh really eh? what happened in 1870? :s

The industrial revolution.

It's not like the economy hadn't been growing up until then, but it was offset by population growth which meant that GDP/capita stayed more or less flat.

But from the industrila revolution up until now GDP growth has offset population growth by a large margin and as result GDP/capita has grown exponentially.

I say yes. Like it or not what effects the US effects the rest of the world, too. When we have a recession, so does the rest of the world. The reverse is true too, though. If asia crashed, it would greatly harm us.

Affected certainly. Devastated is too strong of a word.

[LeonOfTheDead]

Affected certainly. Devastated is too strong of a word.

this

I think the mess going on now is kinda peculiar to the US, but surely it would affects all the other main countries around the world, for the reason explained by Matra, for example.
but even if this situation is going on since a while, we are not facing the same issues that the American population is right now.
regardless of what happened recently, the world's economical situation wasn't the best since a couple of years, so everything now could be easily connected to the what happened in the US, but my opinion is that those facts are evidences of the situation, not what caused it.

[coolieman1220]

imagine if the big 3 collapsed and we got BMW's as taxi cars instead of crown vics?

[Ferrer]

imagine if the big 3 collapsed and we got BMW's as taxi cars instead of crown vics?

More like Toyota Camrys probably.

In fact when I was in New York about 8 years ago I remember seeing (and actually riding in one) Honda MPV taxi cabs, aside from the usual Crown Vics.

[Bleeding Heart]

imagine if the big 3 collapsed and we got BMW's as taxi cars instead of crown vics?

That's not likely to happen... It would probably be Toyota Corollas or anything else similar to corollas... But it wouldn't probably be BMWs...

More like Toyota Camrys probably.

In fact when I was in New York about 8 years ago I remember seeing (and actually riding in one) Honda MPV taxi cabs, aside from the usual Crown Vics.

Is having an MPV for a taxi better than a crown vic???

I notice that a crown vic is a nice car for a taxi cab because it's a large and spacious car...

[#1 Mustang Fan]

Devastated?

[wwgkd]

You know, with china alrady kind of going down the crapper recently, this could have a snowball effect and actually have a bigger impact on asia than anticipated. Or not, it just occured to me.

[Ferrer]

Is having an MPV for a taxi better than a crown vic???

I notice that a crown vic is a nice car for a taxi cab because it's a large and spacious car...

Well MPVs are spacious too.

[Pando]

Lets consider the worst case scenarios, let's say one of the largest countries in the world would come to a complete collapse, virtually terminating all trade with the rest of the world. Obviously this will effect other countries, badly. But would it be the end of the world and total anarchy? No. As proven by the recession in the early nineties and the fall of the Soviet Union.

As stated before in the thread, even seemingly small things affect economics.

The butterflies wings flapping, causing storms on the other side of the world doesn't seem too far fetched every no and then.

Politics always affect the market, elections, accidents, even political speeches not only in ones own country but abroad can have surprisingly big affects on how much your stocks are worth.

So obviously if three of the largest car manufactures in America would go bust, that would have an effect. In the US and the southern neighbors, where many of the cars are built, it would be a direct hit, with the closing down of factories etc. But I have no doubt in my mind that Americans would get through it without you here feeling any significant change in your living standards. Perhaps you would even have a more interesting car market at the end of the day?

In Europe and Asia, the Big Three falling wouldn't be as hard a hit as the international banks - Some countries, like Iceland has already been hit worse than in recent history but other countries have even benefited from the recession.

To sum it up - affected, of course. Even Obama's & Bush's speeches do. Devastated? Some countries would obviously be hit worse than others, but on a global scale, No - it would take more than that.

[coolieman1220]

That's not likely to happen... It would probably be Toyota Corollas or anything else similar to corollas... But it wouldn't probably be BMWs...




Is having an MPV for a taxi better than a crown vic???

I notice that a crown vic is a nice car for a taxi cab because it's a large and spacious car...

Crown vics are being phased out, but for T&LC BMW would be the choice.